Muslim Population Myths

I am summarising the points from a facebook discussion

Debunking the RSS fear mongering that Muslims will take over India's population.

 http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cursor/entry/muslim-population-myths

 "...in 2035, Muslim will become absolute majority in India (total population: 197.7 crore). Conversion, threatening, rioting, slaughtering, terrorism, intrusion, polygamy, no birth control are being the major tools for Muslim to reach that figure within the said period," says the Sangh Parivar website.

RSS' Irrational Fears

What of the RSS fear of Muslims becoming more than half of India's population by 2035? To make this claim, its number crunchers have to project a total population of 198 crore by 2035. By most estimates, India's population would peak at 154 crore by 2050. The simple extrapolations used for demographic scaremongering have no basis in science.

To the extent social backwardnesshas been identified as the reason for high TFRs, whether in regions or in communities, the need is to investmore in things that create development: skills, awareness, education, healthcare, roads, power, broadband, teledensity. But any move to step up investment in Muslim-majority areas, as the Planning Commission has made, is immediately branded as minority appeasement by the Sangh Parivar.

Global Trend


As societies become more prosperous, healthy and women gain agencyand more and more control over their own lives, their TFR comes down. This is so, regardless of religion or geography. It used to be thought that Catholics would resist contraception. Devoutly catholic Spain and Italy today have a TFR of 1.2, tying with Hong Kong for the lowest rate among countries.

Poorer regions tend to have higher TFRs. But poverty is not the only determinant of people's decisions on how many children to have. Cultural values and practices matter a lot. But no Muslim country is immune to the larger trend. TFR has been declining in every major Muslim nation. It is below the replacement level in Iran. Indonesia and Bangladesh are fast approaching that level. Bangladesh's TFR of 2.2 in 2011 is significantly lower than India's 2.7. And in India, backward states like Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh still have high TFRs: 3.5, 4.2 and 3.6 respectively.

Goa (1.5), Kerala (1.6), Tamil Nadu (1.6) and Puducherry (1.6) have TFRs significantly below the replacement level. Soon, their populations will stop growing - as past young cohorts enter the reproductive age, population will continue to grow for some time - and they can soon apply for UN funds for endangered species.

Does this mean that Muslim populations will stabilise at the same rate as Hindu ones? It does not. To the extent cultural and religious factors inhibit progress of the global trend for TFR to fall with social development, the pace of change will vary. In Kerala, in Muslim majority Malappuram district, the TFR has dropped only to 2.2 even as it has been coming down. At the same time, in Muslim majority Lakshadweep and several districts of Jammu and Kashmir, the TFR is below the replacement level.
 


/********************************************

Hans Rosling had a question: Do some religions have a higher birth rate than others -- and how does this affect global population growth? Speaking at the TEDxSummit in Doha, Qatar, he graphs data over time and across religions. With his trademark humor and sharp insight, Hans reaches a surprising conclusion on world fertility rates.

In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies.html

Arvind Iyer

Are we really sitting on a population time bomb? Is the Eurabia threat for real? Hans Rosling challenges a good deal of the alarmism regarding these questions and reveals a trend that 'Hum do hamare do' may actually have been the practised motto of our species in recent decades!

 Arvind Iyer tl;dw:
Babies per woman decrease when:
1. Children survive.
2. Many children are not needed for work.
3. Women get education and join the labor force.
4. Family planning is accessible.

Nehru-scientific-temper

// Asserting that science was the way to go forward, Rao said though the country's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru believed in it, support for science is, unfortunately, not as good as it should be.// C N R rao

Nehrus Scientific Plan for India:

Science has brought all these mighty changes and not all of them have been for the good of humanity. But the most vital and hopeful of the changes that it has brought about has been the development of the scientific outlook in man.
 —Jawaharlal Nehru

The future belongs to science and those who make friends with science.
- Jawaharlal Nehru

If not for Nehru India would be still lagging behind in science. can you imagine any prime minister taking so much keen interest and travelling across India. If not for Nehru we would be even behind in science, patel unified India in one way, Nehru unified it in another way.
   

//Nehru promoted the growth of science in every conceivable way. He travelled the length and breadth
of the country to open laboratories, to attend scientific meetings, and notably the Indian Science Congress at
the beginning of each year.//

//He supported the aspirations of major players -- Homi Bhabha, to develop the Indian atomic energy programme, which later nurtured the Indian space programme; S.S.Bhatnagar, to create the chain of laboratories of the CSIR; P.C.Mahalanobis, to generate the base of statistics in terms of research, training and application as an enabling tool, particularly for  planning; and D.S.Kothari to initiate work in defence research which grew into the Defence Research Development Organization.
The high point of what Jawaharlal Nehru did for science was embodied in the Scientific Policy Resolution,
adopted by the Government of India on March 4, 1958 (see annexure I). It was a fairly unique statement thenfor any country, leave alone a developing country.//

During the years that Nehru was Prime  Minister, there was massive quantitative expansionof the educational system at all levels -- from primary schools to universities. However, a significant major initiative was the setting up of some unique institutional systems, namely, the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), Indian Institute of Management (IIM) and All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) which are academic, degree-granting institutions, but set apart from the normal university system. The IITs, primarily based on the Sarkar Committee Report, were designed to be the leaders in the field of technical education. Nehru remarked: While it is relatively easy to put up a factory or a plant or a project, it is much more difficult and it takes much more time to train the human being that will run a factory or plant

http://www.iisc.ernet.in/insa/ch3.pdf

 Nehru was instrumental in laying the foundations for building the infrastructure for science and
technology in India – the Universities, the IITs, the CSIR labs, etc. These became the 'hardware' of
science and technology in India, while Scientific Temper among the people of India was to be the
‘software’. In 1976, India became the first countryto include in its Cons
titution 'Scientific Temper with humanism' as a fundamental duty of all citizens of the country [Article 51-A(h)].`


http://www.mainstreamweekly.net/article715.html

Why Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru’s concept of ‘scientific temper’ is very critical to the future of our children?

The future belongs to science and those who
http://scientifictemper.hpage.co.in/scientific-temper_1739305.html
`

But what did he mean by scientific temper? Srirupa Roy in her book “Beyond belief: India and the politics of postcolonial nationalism” notes that Nehru’s emphasis on the need for scientific temper predated independence (p.123). The features of scientific temper were mainly two-fold as Roy elaborates:

1. Scientific temper referred to a mentality or an outlook rather than a specialized body of knowledge. It addressed itself to universalist concerns of “values of life” rather than to narrow and specialized questions of scientific research and application (Roy, p.124)

2. Unlike scientific expertise alone, the project of scientific temper was a call for the diffusion of “science mindedness” throughout the population. The growth of scientific temper was measured by the extent to which ordinary people were using the methods of science to life’s problems (Roy, p.125)

`

go_to_Ahmedabad

http://www.dnaindia.com/ahmedabad/1905228/report-appalling-ahmedabad-roads-lead-to-court-s-door

The court directed the petitioner to serve a copy of the petition on the advocate of the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC).
Seeking the intervention of the court on the appalling condition of public roads, ATCC challenged the actions of the AMC and their contractors responsible for laying below-par roads in the city.
“There is a clear flaw in the bidding process because when AMC floats tenders inviting bids to lay roads, it also prescribes specifications and estimated cost. The contractor, in turn, at the time of bidding, generally bids for a price which is substantially lower than even the estimated cost. The loss of revenue through this lower bidding is sought to be compensated by using pathetically lower-grade material, extremely inferior construction and repeated issuance of maintenance and repair work to the very contractors, who indulge in these grossly unfair and illegal practices,” claimed the petitioner.
ATCC has also given details whereby Rs107 crore worth of contracts have been awarded to firms that have a history of sub-standard works at an average of 20% below the estimated cost.

http://www.dnaindia.com/ahmedabad/1894660/report-yawning-potholes-and-pits-riddle-ahmedabad-roads

It seems the engineering department of the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation’s (AMC’s) needs to learn the basics of planning for monsoon afresh.
Poor quality work has given rise to hundreds of big pits on various city roads, damaging not only vehicles but also spinal cords of citizens. And, the civic body seems to have turned a deaf ear to the problem as it has not taken care to fill the pits with debris and bricks so as to lessen commuters’ woes

http://www.complaintboard.in/complaints-reviews/ahmedabad-municipal-corporation-l43506.html

Water not supplied
Dear Sir,

Please note my address given below. Since last 1.5 months there is no water supply in our society. Please do the needful as soon as possible. We are suffering lot because of this basic need issue.
Also please reply with steps taken by you for my further action.


Mr. L B Dabhi (AGP & APP at High Court of Gujarat)
8/ Gurukrupa Appt, Nr. Cosmo Ville, Premchandanagar Road,
Bodakdev, Ahmedabad
M- 9722972297
email- lbdabhi@yahoo.co.in

WATER SUPPLY IS NOT WORKING
HELLO SIR....
SOME OF HOUSES IN OUR SOCIETY ARE UNABLE TO GET WATER FROM A.M.C........
I DON'T WHY.....BUT THERE SHOULD SOME REASONS...IN IT'S BEHIND.....
BEFORE ALMOST 2 YEARS..THERE WERE ALL OK......
BUT NOW THERE IS ALL BAD ......
AFTER ALL LIFE'S PRIMARY NEED IS WATER......
PLEASE DO SOME STEPS.........QUICKLY........
I M WAITING ......
REPLY SIR.... 

Modi trying to use Vallabhai patel

LIONISING PATEL THROUGH SELECTIVE AMNESIA AND CYNICAL MANIPULATION !
Modi has announced that he is building in Gujarat a statue of Vallabbhai Patel,which would be the tallest in the world and twice the height of Statue of liberty.
Sardar Patel,if he is at all watching these developments,must be both a deeply anguished and a very angry man.Angry because of his clever appropriation by those whom he steadfastly opposed. Anguished,because the vision of India being offered by his new devotees is so different to the one for which he dedicated his entire life.
WHY ?
*Modi,has never denied that he is still dedicated pracharak of RSS and deeply influenced by the philosophy of Rashtriya Swyam Sangh.Modi has reportedly written a book,praising Golwalkar,longest serving Sarsanchalak of the RSS [1940-73].It will be pertinent to ask Modi :-
1.Does he agree with Golwalkar's explicitly stated views that India is an exclusively Hindu nation,with no place for people of other faiths,not even the rights of a citizen ?
2.Does he support Golwalkar's praise of Nazi Germany,for having manifested a nation's highest pride in exterminating the Jews ?
3.Does he believe ,like Golwalkar,that the Manusmriti,that consigns Shudras to perpetual service of Brahmnas and advocates servitude of women,is the only valid law for India ?
*Patel was India's Home minister when,on February 2,1948,the Government banned the RSS,in pursuance of its -"determination to root out the forces of hate and violence that are at work in our country and imperil the freedom of the nation and darken her fair name".
*In a September 11,1948 letter to Guru Golwalkar,the then RSS sarsanchalak,the Sardar was forthright in his denunciation of RSS leaders :-"all their speeches were full of communal poison. It was not necessary to spread poison in order to enthuse the Hindus and organize for their protection.As a final result of the poison,the country had to suffer the sacrifice of the invaluable life of Gandhi ji."
*Significantly the Sardar was never in doubt about the role of the RSS and the Hindu Mahasabha in the murder of the Mahatma. In a letter dated February 27,1948 to Nehru,he states this clearly :-"it was a fanatical wing of the Hindu Mahasabha directly under Sarvarkar that hatched the conspiracy and saw it through...of course,his assassination was welcomed by those of the RSS and Hindu Mhasabha who were strongly opposed to his way of thinking and to his policy ".
*He reiterates this position in another letter [July 18,1948] to Shyama Prasad Mookerjee :-"as regards the RSS and Hindu Mahasabha...our reports do confirm that as a result of these two bodies ,particularly the former, an atmosphere was created in the country in which such a ghastly tragedy became possible."
*Incidentally ,although Nathuram Godse denied any direct link with the RSS at the time of his trial,many years later,in an interview to Frontline magazine in January 1994,his brother Gopal,was quite candid about the truth :-"all the brothers were in the RSS,Nathuram,Dattatreya, myself and Govind.You can say we grew up in the RSS rather than in our home.It was like a family to us. Nathuram had become a baudhik karyavah [intellectual worker] in the RSS."
*Sardar Patel was a staunch follower of Gandhi ji and his inclusive vision.His emphatic opposition to the RSS,the institution which mentored Modi and shaped his world view,is documented fact.What is then Modi trying to convey by co-opting Patel and building the world's tallest statue as tribute to him?
Why this political hypocrisy and dichotomy ?
[Compilation :courtesy, Pavan K Verma].

SC-ST-Representaion in Group A,B,C,D

This blog  discusses in detail the representation of SC/ST, infact they are under representing  their population as seen in the below table.

  Form the second table it is evident that Reservation has helped in the improvement of conditions and their  numbers in Govt Services.

In 1959 GROUP A 1.18 % represented, in 2005 about 11.9 %.

 

Population of SC/ST In India and their representation in Govt Servcies

In 2005					Excluding sweepers
Total Population	Percentage	Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
SC	16.6	11.9	13.7	16.4	18.3
ST	8.6	4.3	4.5	6.5	6.9
TOTAL	25.2	16.2	18.2	22.9	25.2
Lagging Behind		9%	7%	2.30%	0%
http://www.friendsofsouthasia.org/caste/reservations/data.html
Class	1959	1965	1974	1984	1995
I	1.18	1.64	3.2	6.92	10.12
II	2.38	2.82	4.6	10.36	12.67
III	6.95	8.88	10.3	13.98	16.15
IV	17.24a	17.75	18.6	20.2	21.26a

Table 1: Representation of Lower Castes in Central Government Services [All numbers in %]
Source: Report of the Backward Classes (Mandal) Commission, 1980, Vol II, p.92. Also available at

http://idsn.org/news-resources/idsn-news/read/article/two-thirds-of-indias-dalits-are-poor/128/

Poverty levels are highest among India’s tribal population (81.4 percent), followed by Dalits (65.8 percent) and Other Backward Classes (58.3 percent). The poverty level among the rest of the population is 33.3 percent.

http://www.nlm.nic.in/lit_scst.htm
http://idsn.org/news-resources/idsn-news/read/article/two-thirds-of-indias-dalits-are-poor/128/
http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?234783 Typical comparison of  Upper caste Bramhins Vs SC/ST [ The data is collected form the above link, the bramhin data is published in an article in outlookindia]
Caste	Total population in crores ~data	poor	Rich	Literacy levels	Graduates
SC/St in2007, basically 26% of 113crores	30	75%		(2001)54.69/ 47.10%	NA
Brahmins as in 2007	5.6	13%	19%	84%	39%

http://karnmk.blogspot.in/2012/12/representation-of-scst-in-group-c-and-d.html

as on 1.1.2011, the representation of SC and ST in Group C is 16.4% and 7.7%, respectively. Similarly, in erstwhile Group D as on 1.1.2009, the representation of SC and ST was 21.6% and 6.7%, respectively, which as on 1.1.2011 has gone upto 23% and 6.8%, respectively

GROUP C as on 1.1.2011	16.4%	7.7%
GROUP D as on 1.1.2011	23%	6.7%

http://karnmk.blogspot.in/2013/03/representation-of-scs-and-sts-in.html

As per the annual publication “Statistics of Higher and Technical Education” of Ministry of Human Resource Development, the number of teachers in higher education in the country during 2009-10(Provisional) is 652665. As per the provisional report on the All India Survey on Higher Education, the percentages of SC and ST teaching and non-teaching staff out of their total number during 2010-11 (Provisional) based on data collected up to 31st July, 2012 are given below:

	SC	ST
Teaching Staff	7.4	2.9
Non -Teaching Staff	12.2	4.0

September 5, 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qfAyDVogxc&feature=player_embedded

He summarises caste system and economic policies etc.. are the deep routed problems. Corruption is just the tip of the iceberg  This man Sainath he has journeyed 10k + kms into rural areas, he is an authority on rural India and its issues.

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/independence-changed-little-for-the-scheduled-castes-former-vc/article4020859.ece

Quantifying untouchability, the study revealed that the denial of entry to Dalits into ‘upper caste’ homes was a “strictly observed practice” with 82 per cent of the households saying they were not allowed into these homes.

Sixty-four out of 100 households said they were denied entry to temples (here, an overwhelming majority said they could not enter the sanctum sanctorum of the temple, notes the study), while 22 per cent were not allowed to go near common water sources in the villages.

If we were to look at specific groups or communities, this would be even clearer. Let alone on the hunger index, India's rank in the U.N.'s Human Development Index is anyway dismal. There, at 126, we are below Bolivia, Guatemala and Gabon. Yet even that rank does not tell the full story. If we were to isolate the rich and the better off as a group, they might enter the top 10 nations. Efforts last year to look at adivasis as a group led pretty much in the reverse direction. One study found that if we were to derive the HDI for our tribes only, they would rank in the worst off 25 nations of the world.
http://www.indiatogether.org/2007/nov/psa-index.htm

http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_566.pdf